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Market Direction Is Important –
Updated Chart of the S&P 500 and Secondary Signals
Of our Four secondary indicators under our MTI:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)-Negative
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)-Negative
Money Flow Index-MFI-Negative
More on the Market and the Economy:
Concerns about China and the global economy weighed on the market, and the lift from Friday’s solid jobs report was short-lived. The S&P 500 ended the first trading week of the year with a steep 6% loss.
This week data will be released on small business optimism, retail sales, industrial production, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and the Fed’s Beige Book.
The minutes from the Fed’s December FOMC meeting showed that most officials were “reasonably confident” that inflation will rise, but “some members said that their decision to raise the target range was a close call, particularly given the uncertainty about inflation dynamics and emphasized the need to monitor the progress of inflation closely”.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is estimating .8% growth for the fourth quarter following the release of the wholesale trade report.
The US trade deficit shrank 5% in November to $42.4 billion – the lowest in nine months. Exports fell to $182.2 billion – the lowest since January of 2012, while imports fell to $224.6 billion, reflecting a drop in oil prices. The trade deficit with China fell 5.2% to $31.3 billion.
Source: Census Bureau
The economy added 292,000 jobs in December, ending 2015 with a total of 2.7 million jobs created for the year, marking the fifth year in a row with employment growth of at least 2 million. The jobless rate was unchanged at 5%.
US firms cut 23,622 jobs in December – the fewest since 2000 – as “a strong economy, coupled with what appears to be a growing reluctance to announce layoffs during the holidays, contributed to December experiencing the lowest number of monthly job cuts in more than 15 years. The December decline was significant enough to prevent 2015 job cuts from reaching a six-year high”, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Last year was the second-warmest year on record in the US, with an annual average temperature of 54.4F (the average temperature in 2012 was higher at 55.3F). 2015 was the third-wettest year on record with 34.47 inches of average precipitation (only 1973 and 1983 had higher levels). And in 2015, there were 10 weather/climate related disasters, each one exceeding $1 billion in losses, and resulting in a total of 155 deaths.
Source: Commerce Department
US auto sales reached a record in 2015, with 17.47 million vehicles moving off dealer lots, topping the previous record of 17.35 million set in 2000.
Source: White House