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Market Direction Is Important –
Updated Chart of the S&P 500 and Secondary Signals
Of our Four secondary indicators under our MTI:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)-Positive
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)-Negative
Money Flow Index-MFI-Negative
More on the Market and the Economy:
The market ended a three-day rally on Thursday, with the S&P 500 posting a loss on light volume. The index finished the holiday-shortened week with a 2.8% gain.
This week data will be released on consumer confidence and pending home sales.
The economy expanded a bit slower than previously forecast in the third quarter, with growth revised to 2%. The downward revision was the result of a larger trade deficit and a smaller inventory buildup than previously estimated. On the upside, consumer spending grew 3%.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is forecasting growth of 1.3% for the fourth quarter, down from 1.9%, following the release of data on consumer spending and the third quarter GDP revision.
Sales of existing homes dropped 10.5% in November, falling to an annual rate of 4.76 million and hitting the slowest pace in 19 months. According to the National Association of Realtors, “Sparse inventory and affordability issues continue to impede a large pool of buyers’ ability to buy, which is holding back sales. However, signed contracts have remained mostly steady in recent months, and properties sold faster in November. Therefore it’s highly possible the stark sales decline wasn’t because of sudden, withering demand.” The inventory of available homes fell 3.3% to 2.04 million – a 5.1 month-supply at the current sales pace.
Just after the holiday, a few statistics from the Commerce Department:
Estimated retail sales by the nation’s department stores (including leased departments) in December 2014. This represents an estimated 41.2 percent jump from the previous month when retail sales were estimated at $17.3 billion. No other estimated month-to-month increase in department store sales last year was as large.
Estimated value of retail sales by electronic shopping and mail-order houses in December 2014 — the highest estimated total for any month last year.
The estimated growth in inventories by our nation’s department stores (excluding leased departments) from Aug. 31 to Nov. 30, 2014.
Estimated number of U.S. producers who grew poinsettias in 2014. California, North Carolina and Florida ranked in the top three for sales of the popular holiday plant”.