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Market Direction Is Important –
Updated Chart of the S&P 500 and Secondary Signals
Of our Four secondary indicators under our MTI:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)-Positive
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)-Positive
Money Flow Index-MFI-Positive
More on the Market and the Economy:
Stocks finished slightly higher on Friday, but logged a weekly loss as disappointing wholesale inventory data took a toll. The S&P 500 ended the week down 1.2%- its worst week since early February.
This week data will be released on small business optimism, retail sales, business inventories, industrial production, inflation and the Fed’s Beige Book.
The minutes from the Fed’s March FOMC meeting showed that the committee was divided on whether to increase rates in April, while the central bank sees the economy expanding modestly with inflation ticking up in recent months. According to the minutes, “A number of participants judged that the headwinds restraining growth and holding down the neutral rate of interest were likely to subside only slowly. In light of this expectation and their assessment of the risks to the economic outlook, several expressed the view that a cautious approach to raising rates would be prudent or noted their concern that raising the target range as soon as April would signal a sense of urgency they did not think appropriate. In contrast, some other participants indicated that an increase in the target range at the Committee’s next meeting might well be warranted if the incoming economic data remained consistent with their expectations for moderate growth in output, further strengthening of the labor market, and inflation rising to 2 percent over the medium term”.
The US trade deficit widened 2.6% in February to $47.1 billion on an increase in imports. Imports gained 1.3% to $225.1 billion, while exports picked up 1% to $178.1 billion – marking the first gain in exports since September.
Source: Census Bureau
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is estimating growth in the first quarter of .1%, down from a previous .4%, following the wholesale trade report.
Job openings slipped in February, with 5.4 million available jobs, according to the JOLTS report. But on the upside, employers hired at the fastest pace since 2006, as the hiring rate rose to 3.8%, with the hiring surge driven by the retail sector.
The service sector expanded in March at the fastest pace in three months, as the ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 54.5%. Measures of employment and new orders both rose.