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Market Update

Market Direction Is Important –

Updated Chart of the S&P 500 and Secondary Signals

Of our Four secondary indicators under our MTI:

  1. Relative Strength Index (RSI)-Positive

  2. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)-Positive

  3. MACD- Positive

  4. Money Flow Index-MFI-Positive

More on the Market and the Economy:

Stocks slipped on Friday, as concerns about Greece overshadowed a solid jobs report. The economy added 257,000 jobs in January and hourly earnings saw the biggest increase in six years, but that was eclipsed by news that Standard & Poor’s downgraded Greece’ credit rating to B- from B with a negative outlook, noting that “liquidity restraints weighing on Greece’s banks and it’s economy have narrowed the timeframe during which the new government can reach an agreement on a financing programme with its official creditors”. Earlier in the week, the European Central Bank revoked a waiver that allowed Greek banks to use Greek government debt as collateral for loans, citing that it is “currently not possible to assume a successful conclusion” to Greece’s bailout talks with lenders.

After falling on Friday, stocks still posted solid weekly gains. The S&P 500 ended the week up 3%, and the Dow posted its best week since January 2013 with a 3.8% gain.


Treasuries sold off following Friday’s jobs report, pushing the yield on the 10-year to snap five weeks of declines and log its biggest one-week gain since June 2013 as it closed the week at 1.946%.

This week data will be released on small business optimism, retail sales, business inventories, consumer sentiment and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.

In a report that raises questions about whether federal hiring standards are strict enough, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration reported on Thursday that in recent years the IRS rehired employees who left amid conduct and performance problems. Between January 2010 and July 2013, the agency rehired 323 former employees, and a couple of them returned to their previous positions after “failing critical job elements at the time they had separated from their prior employment with the IRS”. Of the 73,000 employees the IRS hired between October 2009 and September 2013, just .4% were former employees, and “most rehired employees do not have performance or conduct issues”.

Global debt has risen by $57 trillion since the financial crisis, according to a new report from global consulting firm McKinsey. Since the start of 2007, the debt of governments, banks, corporations and households has risen to 286% of global economic output from 269%. The report noted that total debt has increased in all of the world’s economic powerhouses, which is troubling as high levels of debt leave countries more vulnerable to shocks. On the upside, financial institutions have deleveraged – financial sector debt in the US has fallen by 24% of GDP according to the firm’s calculations.

Last Monday, the White House released President Obama’s $4 trillion budget proposal for fiscal 2016; the plan would raise taxes on corporations and high income earners and marks a spending increase of $240 billion over the current year with more outlays for housing and infrastructure.


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