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Market Update

Market Direction Is Important –

Updated Chart of the S&P 500 and Secondary Signals

Of our Four secondary indicators under our MTI:

  1. Relative Strength Index (RSI)-Positive

  2. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)-Positive

  3. MACD- Positive

  4. Money Flow Index-MFI-Negative

More on the Market and the Economy:

Geopolitical tensions were in focus last week, overshadowing economic data. The S&P 500 managed to trim its losses and closed just slightly in the red on Friday, finishing the week with a 1.2% gain.


News of further conflict between Russia and Ukraine spurred a flight to safety, sending the yield on the 10-year Treasury to the lowest level in over a year. The yield on the 30-year bond reached the lowest level since May 2013.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Loiuis

Gold demand fell sharply in the 2nd quarter, falling 16% on a yearly basis to 964 tons, according to the latest World Gold Council report. The slump was driven by a 30% yearly drop in global jewelry demand, which accounts for half of global gold demand, and a 56% decline in bar and coin demand. Gold ETFs saw outflows of 40 tons for the quarter – a significant improvement over the 402.2 tons of outflows in the 2nd quarter of 2013. Central banks continued buying gold in the face of geopolitical uncertainty, picking up 118 tons – a 28% rise over one year ago – marking the 14th consecutive quarter of net buying. Russia was among the three largest central bank buyers.

Source: World Gold Council

Looking at a proxy for gold, the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), this fund has been holding a long-term sell signal for about a year and a half.

The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2014 to 1 million barrels per day, noting that “despite armed conflict in Libya, Iraq and Ukraine, the oil market today looks better supplied than expected” and that “oil prices seem almost eerily calm in the face of mounting geopolitical risks spanning an unusually large swath of the oil-producing world”.

Source: International Energy Agency


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