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Market Direction Is Important –
Updated Chart of the S&P 500 and Secondary Signals
Of our Four secondary indicators under our MTI:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)-Positive
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)-Positive
Money Flow Index-MFI-Positive
More on the Market and the Economy:
Stocks gained last Wednesday following the Fed’s rate hike announcement, then edged lower on Friday, still managing modest gains for the week. The S&P 500 finished the week up .2%.
This week data will be released on existing home sales, new home sales and durable goods.
At last week’s FOMC meeting, the Fed delivered a quarter point rate hike as widely anticipated while signaling two more increases this year.
The Conference Board’s leading economic index edged up in February, with the report noting “after six consecutive monthly gains, the U.S. LEI is at its highest level in over a decade. Widespread gains across a majority of the leading indicators points to an improving economic outlook for 2017, although GDP growth is likely to remain moderate”.
Home builder confidence jumped to a 12-year high in March, as the NAHB index rose to 71, marking the highest since June 2005. Measures of current conditions, buyer traffic and sales expectations jumped. According to the NAHB, “While builders are clearly confident, we expect some moderation in the index moving forward. Builders continue to face a number of challenges, including rising material prices, higher mortgage rates, and shortages of lots and labor.”
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecast for first quarter growth stands at .9% following last week’s housing starts data.
Small business optimism slipped in February, as the NFIB index declined to 105.3 while business owners “are being squeezed by this historically tight labor market”. According to the NFIB, “It is clear from our data that optimism skyrocketed after the election because small business owners anticipated a change in policy. The sustainability of this surge and whether it will lead to actual economic growth depends on Washington’s ability to deliver on the agenda that small business voted for in November”.