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Market Direction Is Important –
Updated Chart of the S&P 500 and Secondary Signals
Of our Four secondary indicators under our MTI:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)-Positive
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)-Positive
Money Flow Index-MFI-Positive
More on the Market and the Economy:
Stocks finished the holiday-shortened week at new records, with the S&P 500 posting its fourth straight record close. The index rose 1.4% for the week, marking its third consecutive weekly gain.
This week data will be released on consumer spending, manufacturing, pending home sales, construction spending, the Fed’s Beige Book, GDP and the jobs report.
The release of last month’s FOMC meeting minutes showed that Fed officials took note of an improving labor market and “somewhat higher” inflation, and that “most participants expressed a view that it could well become appropriate to raise the target range for the federal-funds rate relatively soon”.
Sales of existing homes jumped 2% in October to the highest in nearly ten years at an annual rate of 5.60 million. According to the National Association of Realtors, “October’s strong sales gain was widespread throughout the country and can be attributed to the release of the unrealized pent-up demand that held back many would-be buyers over the summer because of tight supply. Buyers are having more success lately despite low inventory and prices that continue to swiftly rise above incomes…The good news is that the tightening labor market is beginning to push up wages and the economy has lately shown signs of greater expansion. These two factors and low mortgage rates have kept buyer interest at an elevated level so far this fall”. At the current sales pace, the inventory of available homes stands at a 4.3 months supply.
Sales of new homes slipped 1.9% last month to an annual pace of 563,000 while the inventory of new homes for sale rose to 246,000 – a 5.2 months supply at the current sales pace.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model forecast for fourth quarter growth stood at 3.6% following manufacturing data.
The holiday shopping season is underway, and the National Retail Federation is forecasting holiday sales to increase 3.6% to $655.8 billion. Retailers are expected to hire between 640,000 and 690,000 seasonal workers this year.
And kicking off the shopping season, the NRF projected that 137 million consumers shopped over the Thanksgiving weekend.