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Market Direction Is Important –
Updated Chart of the S&P 500 and Secondary Signals
Of our Four secondary indicators under our MTI:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)-Negative
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)-Positive
Money Flow Index-MFI-Positive
More on the Market and the Economy:
Stocks dropped on Friday in the wake of the Brexit vote, with the S&P 500 falling 3.6% and erasing its gains for the year.
This week data will be released on consumer spending, manufacturing, construction spending and GDP.
During her congressional testimony last week, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the economy is “doing well” as “consumer spending has picked up smartly in recent months, supported by solid growth in real disposable income, and the ongoing effects of the increases in household wealth. And housing has continued to recover gradually, aided by income gains and the very low level of mortgage rates”. She also said that recent weakness in job growth is “transitory” and that “the odds of a recession are low”.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index slipped .2% in May, “primarily due to a sharp increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance. The growth rate of the LEI has moderated over the past year. While the LEI suggests the economy will continue growing at a moderate pace in the near term, volatility in financial markets and a moderating outlook in labor markets could pose downside risks to growth”.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now model forecast for second quarter growth slipped to 2.6% following durable manufacturing data.
Sales of existing homes rose 1.8% in May, marking the highest level in nine years, and reaching an annual pace of 5.53 million. The supply of available homes stands at 4.7 months at the current sales pace. According to the National Association of Realtors, “This spring’s sustained period of ultra-low mortgage rates has certainly been a worthy incentive to buy a home, but the primary driver in the increase in sales is more homeowners realizing the equity they’ve accumulated in recent years and finally deciding to trade-up or downsize. With first-time buyers still struggling to enter the market, repeat buyers using the proceeds from the sale of their previous home as their down payment are making up the bulk of home purchases right now”.
New home sales fell 6% in May, slipping to an annual rate of 551,000, while the inventory of new homes for sale rose to a 5.3 months supply.
An infographic showing the breakdown of the UK’s EU referendum results: