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Market Direction Is Important –
Updated Chart of the S&P 500 and Secondary Signals
Of our Four secondary indicators under our MTI:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)-Positive
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)-Positive
Money Flow Index-MFI-Positive
More on the Market and the Economy:
The S&P 500 was virtually unchanged on Friday, but finished the week with a modest gain for the second week in a row, ending up .52%.
This week data will be released on new homes sales, durable goods, consumer spending, GDP and the Fed’s FOMC meeting announcement.
After declining in January and February, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index increased .2% in March. The Conference Board reported that “rebounding stock prices were offset by a decline in housing permits, but nonetheless there were widespread gains among the leading indicators. Financial conditions, as well as expected improvements in manufacturing, should support a modest growth environment in 2016.”
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model is forecasting growth of .3% for the first quarter following housing starts data.
Builder confidence held steady in April, as the NAHB housing market index was unchanged at 58 for the third month in a row. “Builders remain cautiously optimistic about construction growth in 2016,” according to the NAHB. “Solid job creation and low mortgage interest rates will sustain continued gains in the single-family housing market in the months ahead.”
Builders started construction on fewer homes in March, as housing starts dropped almost 9% to an annual pace of 1.09 million. At the same time, permits for new construction fell over 7% to a 12-month low of 1.09 million.
Existing homes sales jumped 5.1% in March to annual rate of 5.33 million, while the inventory of unsold homes increased to a 4.5 month supply at the current sales pace. According to the National Association of Realtors, “Buyer demand remains sturdy in most areas this spring and the mid-priced market is doing quite well. However, sales are softer both at the very low and very high ends of the market because of supply limitations and affordability pressures.”